You may hold carried interest that is highly likely to pay. It is also extremely long-dated, and nobody can tell you when it will pay out: three years, five, ten. Even the winners that look on rails to exit are exposed to macro shocks and market downturns that can take a whole position to zero; any veteran GP will tell you the carry isn't done until it's in the bank. And for most GPs that carry is a significant share of their personal net worth, concentrated in one or two large positions in one fund.